Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
This market centers on which team will be officially recorded as the winner of the 2026 World Cup match between the referenced outcomes, using the match result itself as the defining reference event. The fixture represents a competitive milestone within the 2026 World Cup, a tournament co-hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico where group stage results directly determine each team's path toward the knockout rounds. Traders are evaluating team form, recent international results, head-to-head history, and tactical setup to determine which side is more likely to secure the official victory — or whether the match will end level — when 90 minutes of regular play has concluded.
Market Outcomes and Resolution Criteria: This market covers 2026 World Cup group stage matches only. It is not applicable to knockout stage fixtures, where a winner must be determined beyond 90 minutes. It resolves to "Yes" if Yes are officially recorded as the winner, "No" if No are officially recorded as the winner, or "Tie" ($0.50 per share) if the match ends in a draw within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. It also resolves to "Tie" ($0.50 per share) if the match is postponed beyond 24 hours, cancelled entirely, or if no official winner is recorded by the market end date. Extra time and penalty shootouts are not considered.
Definition of "Official Winner": A team is considered to have won if they hold a strictly higher goal tally than their opponent at the conclusion of 90 minutes of regular play plus any added stoppage time, as determined by the official match record. Goals scored in extra time or via penalty shootout do not count toward resolution. Own goals count toward the opposing team's total.
Official Sources and Evidence: The primary resolution source is the official 2026 World Cup match results as published by the tournament's governing body. Liquipedia and official team social media may be used for corroboration only and cannot override the primary source.
Resolution Timing: The market resolves no sooner than 3 hours after the official match result is confirmed on the primary source.
Handling Postponements and Cancellations: If the match is postponed but completed with an official result declared within 24 hours of the original scheduled start, that result determines the outcome. If the match is not completed, is cancelled, or no official result is declared within 24 hours of the original scheduled start, the market resolves to "Tie" at $0.50 per share.
Ambiguities and Disputes: In the event of conflicting evidence, the official match results published by the tournament's governing body take precedence over all other sources. VAR-confirmed decisions follow the official match record.
- Market open
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- Market closes
- After the outcome occurs
- Projected payout
- 1 minute after closing
This market will close and expire after a winner is declared. Otherwise, it closes by Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM.
In this event, at most one market can resolve to "Yes". When buying or selling "No" across multiple markets, you may receive some funds back or be required to pay funds. This is called "collateral return".
The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
- Current and former players, coaches, and staff of the league, association, or organization(s) governing the event. For college leagues/associations specifically, or where otherwise appropriate (as identified by the Exchange), this applies to current and former players/coaches/staff of the specific teams in the event rather than the league/association as a whole (e.g., if the Division I Gonzaga Men's Basketball Team is playing in the event, this prohibition will restrict trades by current/former players of that team, rather than all current/former players/coaches/staff in any NCAA sport).
- Paid employees of the league and league participants.
- Owners of teams and the league.
- Household members and immediate family of all of the above.
- Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
- Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
